Geneva [Switzerland], October 8: Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world. In response, WTO economists raised the 2025 merchandise trade growth forecast to 2.4% (up from 0.9% in August). However, the 2026 projection has been lowered to 0.5% (from 1.8%). Global services exports growth is expected to slow from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026.
In the 7 October update of "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics", WTO economists provide new analysis on the build-up in inventories in 2025 and the robust trade in artificial intelligence-related goods such as semiconductors, servers and telecommunications equipment. They note however that trade growth will likely slow in 2026 as the impact of the cooling global economy and new tariffs set in.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said: "Countries' measured response to tariff changes in general, the growth potential of AI, as well as increased trade among the rest of the world--particularly among emerging economies--helped ease trade setbacks in 2025," noting that South-South trade grew 8% year-on-year, in value terms, in the first half of 2025, compared to 6% for world trade overall. South-South trade involving partners other than China is growing even faster, up around 9%.
"Trade resilience in 2025 is thanks in no small part to the stability provided by the rules-based multilateral trading system. Yet complacency is not an option. Today's disruptions to the global trade system are a call to action for nations to reimagine trade and together lay a stronger foundation that delivers greater prosperity for people everywhere," DG Okonjo-Iweala said.
The volume of world merchandise trade, as measured by the average of exports and imports, grew 4.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. The value of world merchandise trade in current US dollar terms was up 6% year-on-year in the first six months of 2025 following a 2% increase in 2024.
AI-related goods-including semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment-drove nearly half of the overall trade expansion in the first half of the year, rising 20% year-on-year in value terms. Trade growth spanned the digital value chain, from raw silicon and specialty gases to devices powering cloud platforms and AI applications. Asia's export performance was strong in AI-related products, consistent with the worldwide surge in investment in this sector.
Asia and Africa are expected to record the fastest export volume growth in 2025, with modest performances also anticipated from South and Central America the Caribbean and the Middle East, while Europe will likely see slower growth. North America and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) face declining exports. Least-developed countries (LDCs) are expected to show robust export gains but face weakening trends ahead. On the import side, Africa and LDCs are set to experience the fastest growth, contrasting with a contraction in North America. In 2026, only North America, Europe and CIS will post an improvement in export performance; all regions will record weaker import performance in 2026.
Source: Emirates News Agency
